Using imprecise continuous time Markov chains for assessing the reliability of power networks with common cause failure and non-immediate repair.

We explore how imprecise continuous time Markov chains can improve traditional reliability models based on precise continuous time Markov chains. Specifically, we analyse the reliability of power networks under very weak statistical assumptions, explicitly accounting for non-stationary failure and repair rates and the limited accuracy by which common cause failure rates can be estimated. Bounds on typical quantities of interest are derived, namely the expected time spent in system failure state, as well as the expected number of transitions to that state. A worked numerical example demonstrates the theoretical techniques described. Interestingly, the number of iterations required for convergence is observed to be much lower than current theoretical bounds

SURFACE TREATMENT FOR THE MITIGATION OF WHEY PROTEIN FOULING

Heat transfer fouling experiments were carried out in a temperature controlled stirred vessel using aqueous solutions of whey protein concentrate in the concentration range of 3 to 3.5 wt-% at a bulk temperature of 50 °C and pH of 6. Heat transfer data were obtained from thermocouples embedded in an immersed electrical heating rod with various metal plates attached with-and-without surface treatments. Measurements included solution temperature, heating element surface temperature, and heat duty. Results are presented as fouling resistance versus time for aluminum, copper, stainless steel, electro-polished stainless steel, and surfaces coated with DLC and doped with Si , SiO, as well as DLC-coating of an electro-polished stainless steel. Reducing surface roughness was found to mitigate fouling but the combination of both surface treatments, DLC coatings, and electro-polishing gave the best performance. The experimental results demonstrate the potential and value for reducing the adhesive behavior of whey protein fouling layers using modified surfaces. Also a comparison of these results with those for crystallization fouling show the same effects of the surface modification on nucleation and crystal growth. Of particular importance is the influence on the cleaning performance where the main potential can be expected

Testing of the LSST's photometric calibration strategy at the CTIO 0.9 meter telescope

The calibration hardware system of the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope (LSST) is designed to measure two quantities: a telescope's instrumental response and atmospheric transmission, both as a function of wavelength. First of all, a "collimated beam projector" is designed to measure the instrumental response function by projecting monochromatic light through a mask and a collimating optic onto the telescope. During the measurement, the light level is monitored with a NIST-traceable photodiode. This method does not suffer from stray light effects or the reflections (known as ghosting) present when using a flat-field screen illumination, which has a systematic source of uncertainty from uncontrolled reflections. It allows for an independent measurement of the throughput of the telescope's optical train as well as each filter's transmission as a function of position on the primary mirror. Second, CALSPEC stars can be used as calibrated light sources to illuminate the atmosphere and measure its transmission. To measure the atmosphere's transfer function, we use the telescope's imager with a Ronchi grating in place of a filter to configure it as a low resolution slitless spectrograph. In this paper, we describe this calibration strategy, focusing on results from a prototype system at the Cerro Tololo Inter-American Observatory (CTIO) 0.9 meter telescope. We compare the instrumental throughput measurements to nominal values measured using a laboratory spectrophotometer, and we describe measurements of the atmosphere made via CALSPEC standard stars during the same run

Schistosoma haematobium infection and Buruli ulcer

No abstract available

Sets of Priors Reflecting Prior-Data Conflict and Agreement

In Bayesian statistics, the choice of prior distribution is often debatable, especially if prior knowledge is limited or data are scarce. In imprecise probability, sets of priors are used to accurately model and reflect prior knowledge. This has the advantage that prior-data conflict sensitivity can be modelled: Ranges of posterior inferences should be larger when prior and data are in conflict. We propose a new method for generating prior sets which, in addition to prior-data conflict sensitivity, allows to reflect strong prior-data agreement by decreased posterior imprecision.Comment: 12 pages, 6 figures, In: Paulo Joao Carvalho et al. (eds.), IPMU 2016: Proceedings of the 16th International Conference on Information Processing and Management of Uncertainty in Knowledge-Based Systems, Eindhoven, The Netherland

A robust Bayesian analysis of the impact of policy decisions on crop rotations.

We analyse the impact of a policy decision on crop rotations, using the imprecise land use model that was developed by the authors in earlier work. A specific challenge in crop rotation models is that farmer’s crop choices are driven by both policy changes and external non-stationary factors, such as rainfall, temperature and agricultural input and output prices. Such dynamics can be modelled by a non-stationary stochastic process, where crop transition probabilities are multinomial logistic functions of such external factors. We use a robust Bayesian approach to estimate the parameters of our model, and validate it by comparing the model response with a non-parametric estimate, as well as by cross validation. Finally, we use the resulting predictions to solve a hypothetical yet realistic policy problem

Lattice gauge theory: A retrospective

I discuss some of the historical circumstances that drove us to use the lattice as a non-perturbative regulator. This approach has had immense success, convincingly demonstrating quark confinement and obtaining crucial properties of the strong interactions from first principles. I wrap up with some challenges for the future.Comment: Lattice 2000 (Plenary), 9 pages, 7 figure